Lions v Packers @ Ford Field, Detroit, Dome
O/U DET -7.5
Line 47
The first game on the Thanksgiving slate always belongs to the Detroit Lions where they will take on the Green Bay Packers at high-noon on Turkey Day. In the previous matchup between these two teams at Lambeau Field, the Lions got hot early and didn’t hold back in the first half and held on for a convincing win of 34-20. There is no current indication that this matchup should be much different than the first. Let’s dive deeper into each position:
Quarterbacks: Jared Goff vs Jordan Love
Goff did not have his best game by any means with his first three-interception game in quite some time. He did, however, carry his team to two quick TD drives to win last week’s game against Chicago. Love is also coming off of a win against the LA Chargers in which he looked a bit more composed than previous games. Goff is still a fringe QB1 in this matchup mainly with the multitude of injuries we’ve seen lately to the QB position as a whole. Love will get some streaming interest against a Lions defense that has looked suspect over the past few weeks.
Running Backs: David Montgomery-Jahmyr Gibbs vs AJ Dillon
Montgomery and Gibbs are looking like the top RB tandem, both in the NFL and fantasy purposes. They both finished as top 13 RBs last week where they both found the end zone. Both Montgomery and Gibbs have been ultra-reliable options each week and that won’t change against the Packers. As for Dillon, he is likely to get the start while Aaron Jones is likely to miss Thursday’s tilt due to an injury suffered on Sunday. Dillon will have a rough go at it most likely as the Lions rushing defense has been one of the stingiest of the season. I would leave Dillon on the bench if possible but it may be hard to avoid with the volume he is likely to receive.
Wide Recieivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown-Jameson Williams vs Christian Watson-Romeo Doubs-Jayden Reed
It’s been hard to predict who will be the recipient of Jordan Love’s looks for each given game. Reed has been given plenty of opportunities lately and is cashing them in with a rushing score last week and a receiving score in the game before that. Doubs has been very reliable to put up projected numbers with a receiving TD in 4 of the past 5 games. Watson has been a fantasy bust so far this season and has not caught over 40 receiving yards in all but one game this season. Against the Lions soft pass defense, trusting Doubs and Reed as flex plays are good decisions. The only Lions receiver you should consider playing is Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s really good. That’s it. That’s the recommendation.
Tight Ends: Sam LaPorta vs Josiah Deguara
Both of these rookie tight ends have plenty of potential to continue growing in their roles as great pass catching weapons. LaPorta got off to a torrid start while Musgrave has battled injuries but has looked steady in his role at TE1. Both LaPorta and Musgrave can be looked at this week as starting options. LaPorta has become a weekly start while Musgrave is a popular streaming option this week. Musgrave got injured in the first game vs Detroit so he will look for revenge. UPDATE: Luke Musgrave was placed on IR the day before the game. Josiah Deguara is set to take the TE1 duties in his absence. He is not a fantasy asset today.
Kickers: Riley Patterson vs Anders Carlson
It’s all about the high-powered offense. Patterson is by far the better option of the two kickers. Patterson nailed two field goals and four extra points in the first meeting between these two teams. A 10-point performance is as good as any for your squad; take that to the bank.
DST: Detroit vs Green Bay
While the Lions defense hasn’t looked stellar as of late, they handled Jordan Love and his team in the first meeting. They sacked Love five times and intercepted him twice. They are worthy of a look again to repeat their performance at home. The Packers DST should not be considered going up against a top offense in the league.
Bold Prediction
Jameson Williams has his first 100 yard performance
Lions - 31
Packers - 18
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys AT&T Stadium, Dallas TX. Dome.
O/U DAL -11
Line 46.5
With your second helping of Thanksgiving football, we have another staple of the menu, the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are fresh off a rather surprising defeat at the hands of Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants. The Cowboys easily dismissed the Carolina Panthers and are putting the bibs on, salivating over this matchup.
Quarterback; Sam Howell vs Dak Prescott.
Sam Howell is quietly having a strong fantasy season, as he leads the NFL in passing attempts, passing yards, and sits 7th with 18 passing touchdowns. Imagine what he could do if his offensive line did not allow him to be sacked 51 times. Dak Prescott is having another solid season, as his interceptions are down from years past, and the Cowboys really have no running game to speak of. Dak finished no lower than QB3, from Weeks 6-10 and figures to have another strong showing here.
Fantasy Impact: It won't be pretty, and hopefully Howell can survive another week behind the players that the Commander's call an offensive line. Surely the Commanders will be trailing and be forced to pass resulting in roughly 300 yards passing and two scores from Howell. Be advised, there are easily two interceptions, and multiple sacks mixed in there as well. Prescott is a must-start. If you had any doubts whatsoever, think back to the Commanders vs Bears game from a few Thursdays prior. Washington has given up the 2nd most yards, the most passing touchdowns, and most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year. Your only fear here is that the game is so out of hand that the Cowboys work on their running game the entire second half. Prescott should easily throw for 275 yards and two passing scores.
Running Back; Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson vs Tony Pollard, Rico Dowdle
The cranberry sauce of your day right here. Brian Robinson is having the most pedestrian RB4 season in NFL history, and Tony Pollard managed to find the endzone last week for the first time ( rushing OR receiving! ) since Week 1. Antonio Gibson looks to return to the lineup after a one-game absence while Rico Dowdle is nursing an ankle injury.
Fantasy Impact; Robinson has reeled in 16 catches in the last two weeks in the absence of Antonio Gibson and is a fingers-crossed RB2 week in and week out. Robinson’s ceiling is 80 yards on the ground and a score, with Gibson slated to return after missing last week versus the Giants. The Cowboys sit around mid-pack in rushing defense, giving up 4.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing scores. Tony Pollard is a very tough fit here; the FOMO ( fear of missing out ) is big as Saquon Barkley had a tremendous day against these same ‘Manders just five days ago. The Commanders are ceding a lot of rushing yards, but actually one fewer rushing score than Dallas on the year. I can’t see Pollard getting more than 75 rushing yards and a score here. If he doesn't produce this week, he’s a bench ( or worse ) the rest of the way. Gibson and Dowdle hold no fantasy value this week.
Wide Receiver; Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel vs Ceedee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup
The meat and potatoes of the day here come from the wide receiver position. Terry McLaurin is having a steady year, being targeted at least 5 times in every game since Week 2, but surprisingly only has 2 touchdowns on the year. McLaurin owners also would figure that he’d have more yards as well, seeing as Howell leads the NFL in passing yards. Jahan Dotson had seemingly turned the corner in Week 7, but has gone cold the last two weeks; it should be noted he has 3 touchdown catches in his last four games, and you know Washington will be forced to throw early. Curtis Samuel was offering some flex appeal earlier this season but is struggling to offer any value now. Ceedee Lamb is turning in quite a campaign. Since Week 6, Lamb has at least 7 targets, and 6 catches, has gone over 117 yards in every game but one ( last week vs Carolina ), and scored 5 times ( 4 receiving and 1 rushing ). Brandin Cooks has come alive lately, scoring a touchdown in 3 of 5 games and turning back the clock in Week 10 with a 9/173/1 line. Michael Gallup is lurking and would be a decent flex option; if it weren't a Thursday. Never flex Thursday.
Fantasy Impact; It's tough to sit McLaurin or Dotson here, as the garbage time can start before halftime this week. McLaurin is a nice WR2 on the week, Dotson a low end WR2. With no NFL team on a bye this week, Lamb is the only locked-and-loaded start for Dallas. Cooks would be a boom or bust WR3 in 12+ team leagues.
Tight ends; Logan Thomas vs Jake Ferguson
Logan Thomas is having a very respectable season for a player that was widely undrafted in fantasy draft season. Thomas has had 4 catches or more in six of his last eight games and three touchdowns on the season. Ferguson is essentially just Thomas in a bigger market. Ferguson has at least 4 catches in five of eight games, edging Thomas in the touchdown department, 4 to 3.
Fantasy Impact: Both players are a fine start, as the Washington and Dallas defenses have given up 11 touchdowns to the position this year ( 5 by Washington 6 by Dallas ). Washington has allowed the 12th most points to Tight Ends and Dallas has allowed the 10th most in 2023. Slight edge to Thomas here to have a bigger fantasy day, as his team figures to be in catchup mode early.
Kickers: Joey Slye vs Brandon Aubrey
Slye figures to get some garbage time attempts and stalled drives, but has missed an extra point in two consecutive games. Aubrey should stay loose after attempting at least five extra points, and is on one of the league's most potent offenses. Find a better streamer than Slye, roll with Aubrey.
Defense: Commanders vs Cowboys
The easiest decision you’ll have next to “should I have more dessert?”
Don't even think about using the Washington DST. Dallas will feast.
Bold Prediction; Daron Bland nabs another pick-six.
Fearless predictions
Commanders 23
Cowboys 38
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
Thursday 11/23 8:20 pm NBC, Lumen Field, 42*F
Game odds
Line: SF -6
Over/Under: 43.5
Your NFL Thanksgiving dessert is a gritty divisional battle between two NFC West squads, the
San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers come in fresh off two convincing wins
versus Florida squads, the Seahawks have been a Jekyll and Hyde the last four weeks; A solid
win versus the Cleveland Browns, a maddening blowout versus Baltimore, a close win vs
Washington and a tight loss last week at the Rams.
Quarterbacks: Brock Purdy vs Geno Smith
Brock Purdy has rebounded nicely after the bye and the unfortunate recipients of that were
Tampa and Jacksonville. Purdy has thrown for 6 touchdowns, zero interceptions in the last two
weeks, and at least 272 yards passing in his last four. Brock doesn’t offer a ton on the ground,
which limits him somewhat from a fantasy aspect. Geno Smith is coming into this start
wounded, injuring his right elbow last week vs the Rams. Smith did return to the game but
practiced in a limited fashion all week. Geno is a game time decision and is expected to play. If
not, Drew Lock will get the nod.
Fantasy Impact: Start Purdy, as he’s almost in the must start tier. You never know when a
screen pass can be a house call with McCaffery, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George
Kittle at the ready. Seattle is allowing 6.8 yards after the catch, and solidly around middle of
the league in completion percentage and yards allowed. A wounded Geno Smith staring down
a hungry 49ers defense is a recipe for disaster. San Fran allows the second fewest yards per
catch, 4 th highest interception percentage and 4 th lowest passer rating on the year. I would avoidSmith if at all possible.
Running backs. Christian McCaffrey vs Zach Charbonnet
Christian McCaffrey is special. If you rolled the dice and got him late in a draft this season,
raise your glass and salute Christian. Hopefully he has carried you to a good record in your
league. The Seahawks backfield is in flux, was Kenneth Walker is out for this game with an
oblique injury. Charbonnet handled the full workload last week after Walker exited and carried the ball 15 times for 47 yards. He did manage 6 catches and if Geno is hurting and being harassed by the 49ers pass rush, he should benefit this week.
Fantasy Impact: McCaffery is starting in every fantasy league in the galaxy, Charbonnet is a
low floor RB2, who must get work in the passing game to be successful. This is not an ideal
situation to get your first NFL start. He figures to have the running game volume this week, but the ceiling here is low. The 49ers average 81.4 rush yards per game to opposing running
backs.
Wide Receivers. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk vs D.K Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxson Smith-Njigba
The 49ers receiving weapons have been steady throughout the year, but in a run first offense
with a tremendous defense, they do not always get the volume to make them week in and week out tier 1 starts. Deebo Samuel has been effective but banged up since Week 3. Brandon Aiyuk has stepped up nicely in his absence and is 2 nd in the NFL at 19.3 yards per reception. The Seahawks trio has suffered through inconsistent play from Geno Smith. D.K Metcalf is currently WR28 on the year sitting at only 40 catches through 9 games. Tyler Lockett is having a solid age 31 season, where he was thought to be slowly phased out by the rookie from Ohio State.
Fantasy Impact: Deebo Samuel isn’t an automatic start at the moment. Had this been a
Sunday 4:25 start I’d say Deebo is a flex but, you know to never flex Thursday. Aiyuk is a
strong WR2 with WR1 upside. The Seahawks are around mid-pack in all passing categories
and have only allowed two 200+ yard passing games in the last 7 games. These two teams
place twice in three weeks, so the 49ers Defense is going to look to set the tone early. D.K
Metcalf has been visibly frustrated throughout the year and is only catching 56.3% of his
passes. Tyler Lockett historically has played well vs San Fran and I feel is a safe play,
especially in half or full point per reception formats. Smith-Njigba is a sit here, unless you are in a Deep league, Full PPR format. Should Geno Smith be ruled out and Drew Lock gets the start for Seattle, I would not advise starting any Seahawks receiver.
Tight Ends. George Kittle vs Noah Fant, Will Dissly
George Kittle is having the most George Kittle year imaginable; four games of 5+ receptions, four games at 89 yards or more receiving, and one game with 3 touchdown grabs. He also has six games of 3 catches or less and two games with 10 YARDS or less. Start George and hope for some divisional magic.
Tight end is what it is. Noah Fant had a nice start to the year, but that is in the rearview mirror. Will Dissly just keeps plugging along.
Fantasy Impact. How much fantasy impact do Tight Ends have anyway? Start Kittle, and if you do have to start a Seattle tight end, their ceiling is 2 catches, 10 yards and a touchdown. I feel for you if you are
in that spot.
Kickers: Jake Moody vs Jason Myers
A kicker in the one of the league’s highest scoring
offenses, check. A kicker against on the best defenses in the NFL, check. Moody and the
49ers have rebounded nicely from their 3-game skid, and Myers has attempted 9 field goals in
two weeks. Both are fine start as the weather looks to be clear in Seattle.
Defenses. San Francisco is a set it and forget it DST. Seattle is a very tough place to play
and should be able to force an interception at the minimum. Seeing as Seattle plays San
Francisco twice, Dallas and Philadelphia in the next four weeks there's no real reason to hold this DST. Find a better streamer if possible.
Prediction
This should be a low scoring, gritty affair. It’ll be interesting to see Zach Charbonnet’s
workload, should Kenneth Walker miss significant time. These two teams play each other
again in two weeks, keep in mind for the fantasy playoffs!
Bold Prediction: A passing touchdown by Christian McCaffrey
Final Score Prediction;
49ers 23
Seahawks 17
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