Best/Worst Matchups - 2025 Week 1

inhales deeply...

FOOTBALL IS BACK!

My excitement can no longer be contained. The NFL season is upon us and we at The FantasyHolics are thrilled to be your favorite source for fantasy advice for this 2025 edition of the fantasy football season.

In this weekly piece, I, #DRock313, I provide you with some expert analysis on key matchups this week and whether they will affect the playability of certain players. With certain matchups, some player's expected stats are likely to be adjusted based on factors such as stud defenders, game script and injuries. It's my job to help you navigate these factors to put together the most coherent lineup possible when a curveball is inevitably thrown your way. They will likely be the names you won't normally just plug into your starting lineup and forget about them (i.e. Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, other stud players...)

For this Week 1 edition of my best and worst matchups, most of this is based on speculation of how the opposing defense is to fare. Some defenses added more than others, while plenty of defenses lost a few key players. All of it will add up to some juicy matchups to exploit for your fantasy football benefit.

Let's get down to business...

QUARTERBACK

START Michael Penix Jr vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are the favorites once again to win the NFC South Division. Tampa made it to the playoffs again and it was due to their explosive passing attack and their stout run defense. Their pass defense, however, was extremely weak. They gave up the 3rd most passing yards in the league last year and did little to address their pass defense by merely drafting Benjamin Morrison at CB in the 2nd round. Enter Michael Penix Jr., who only has a handful of starts under his belt from the end of last season. This is a good as any Week 1 to get the ball rolling for him as newest passing threat in the NFL. This could really be the highest scoring game of the week.

Honorable Mentions: Trevor Lawrence vs CAR, Caleb Williams vs MIN

SIT Justin Fields vs Pittsburgh Steelers

There are quite a few that are on the Justin Fields fantasy hype train. I'm here to pump the brakes on that train for Week 1. With his former team on deck, which is a very formidable defense who knows all of Fields' tricks, I believe the hype train will fail to leave the station until Week 2 where he gets a slightly easier defense in Buffalo. If not, Week 3 will offer an easy defense to carve up in Tampa. Regardless, you should be sitting Fields in this first week of the season.

Honorable Mentions: Dak Prescott vs PHI, Sam Darnold vs SF

RUNNING BACKS

START Both Jaguars Starting RB's vs Carolina Panthers

About three hours before finishing this article, the Jaguars revealed their official depth chart: both Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are co-starters. A certified 1A and 1B situation. Now many will shy away from either of them to start this season but they get a cupcake to start the season with the Panthers who last season gave up over 3,000 yards rushing over the regular season. That's 600 more than the 2nd worst team... 600!! They may have done a bit to address this along with the return of Derrick Brown, but you can't expect it to be completely fixed from the get-go. Don't be afraid to take advantage of this prime matchup this week with either of Etienne or Bigsby as a FLEX option.

Honorable Mentions: Jerome Ford vs CIN, Jordan Mason vs CHI

SIT Tony Pollard vs Denver Broncos

Pollard gets the unlucky privilege of facing who I believe is the best defense in the NFL for the 2025 season in the Broncos. They have playmakers on all levels with leaders in Zach Allen on the line and DPOY Pat Surtain II as the best lockdown CB in the league. More importantly with RB's, they were top 5 in rushing yards allowed last season and they have everyone returning to continue the trend. The other thing working against Pollard will be game script. The Titans have an inexperienced offense and will likely be playing from behind much of the game, leaving Pollard as an afterthought. Be smart and leave Pollard on your bench this week.

Honorable Mention: D'Andre Swift vs MIN, Javonte Williams vs PHI

WIDE RECEIVERS

START Khalil Shakir vs Baltimore Ravens

In one of the best games of the week, the AFC heavyweights will battle it out on Sunday Night Football. This will be a decent scoring game with both teams featuring defenses with weak spots. The weak spot for the Ravens has been the pass defense for the last couple seasons. Khalil Shakir and Josh Allen are ready to exploit that. The Ravens will do their best to remove Josh Allen from the game so when Shakir can get open with quick passes out in the open, he has the opportunity to receive a nice number of targets. His target floor has been remarkably high for most of this past season where received at least 6 targets in half of the games he played in. He should be a steady FLEX option for most of the season and gets a nice matchup to begin the season.

Honorable Mention: Rashid Shaheed vs ARI, Adam Thielen vs CHI

SIT Colts Receivers vs Miami Dolphins

I have a different line of thinking for this one. For starters, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman are currently a WR1A and WR1B in a sputtering pass offense. They may not be dealing with Anthony Richardson for the time being, but instead they have Daniel Jones which doesn't make me feel any better. I do believe the Colts are the better team in this matchup with the Dolphins, but I believe this is an alpha-Jonathan Taylor game and won't have to rely on the pass game nearly as much. Until we get a better feel for who is the preferred target of Jones in the Colts' limited pass offense, we ought to hold these two on our bench for the time being.

Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp vs SF, Marvin Mims vs TEN

TIGHT ENDS

START Dallas Goedert vs Dallas Cowboys

We may just see some Dallas-on-Dallas action before Thursday is over! Just a reminder of how effective Dallas Goedert is when he's healthy. He is often Jalen Hurts' 2nd favorite target on a given day and has had a pretty healthy floor in terms of production. Let's revisit one of those words though: HEALTHY. Goedert was not very healthy last year, but when he was he finished as a Top 12 tight end in half of the games he played more than 60% of snaps. He has returned to being a healthy player and going up against a rival in the Cowboys only boosts his desire to boom in Week 1. The Cowboys have a lack of elite talent at the linebacker position as well and those are the main pieces stopping the tight ends in coverage. Goedert has the feel for perhaps a final bounce-back season at age 30 and should not be forgotten about as a solid TE option this season.

Honorable Mention: Brenton Strange vs CAR, Hunter Henry vs LV

SIT Steelers Tight Ends vs New York Jets

I don't think it's wise to even think about putting out Jonnu Smith or Pat Freiermuth until we see a clear plan of how they both will be used. We see the latest depth chart released where neither are listed ahead of the other. They will both be used in plenty of capacity with the lack of proven talent in the wide receiver room, but Week 1 is not where you experiment with it. The Jets have a pair of stellar linebackers in Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood to take out the pair of tight ends in what may be the lowest scoring game of the week. Please spare yourself the drama of this pair of tight ends for the time being.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts vs TB, Zach Ertz vs NYG

#DRock313