Tetairoa McMillan to Carolina — Fantasy Fallout

1. Who Carolina Just Drafted

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

6’4”, 215 lbs | 4.48 40-yard dash | Two-time All-American | Biletnikoff Finalist

College Production:

• 2022: 39 rec | 702 yds | 8 TDs | 18.0 YPR

• 2023: 84 rec | 1,319 yds | 8 TDs | 15.7 YPR

• 2024: 90 rec | 1,402 yds | 10 TDs | 15.6 YPR 

Calling-Card Traits:

• 54.7% contested catch rate (86th percentile)

• 11 red-zone TDs on 29 targets over the last two years

• Exceptional body control on back-shoulders and sideline fades

Areas for Growth:

• Lacks elite burst; can struggle vs. physical press coverage

• Lean route tree — primarily go/slant/curl in Arizona’s spread system

2. The Panthers’ Offense Is Better Than You Think

2023 (Frank Reich/Thomas Brown) 

• 13.9 PPG (31st), 2,877 pass yds, 11 TDs

2024 (Dave Canales/Brad Idzik)

• 20.1 PPG (23rd), 3,188 pass yds, 22 TDs

Under new leadership, Carolina jumped from dead last in EPA/play to 21st. Bryce Young doubled his TD total and looked far more comfortable in Idzik’s system.

3. Target Landscape:

Diontae Johnson was flipped to Baltimore at the trade deadline after logging 58 targets in 9 games.

2024 Target Totals (Weeks 1–18):

• Xavier Legette: 84 targets — locked into “big slot” role

• Adam Thielen: 62 targets — 34 years old, still under contract through ’25

• David Moore: 57 targets — UFA, not returning

• Diontae Johnson: 58 targets — traded, then waived

• Jonathan Mingo: 42 targets — traded to DAL

• Jalen Coker: 46 targets — competing for depth snaps

• RB/TEs: 146 targets

Vacated targets for 2025: ~160

With Thielen likely glued to the slot, the perimeter is wide open — and McMillan is the heavy favorite to claim the alpha outside role.

4. Year-One Fantasy Outlook

Category	Expected	Ceiling
Targets	100–110	125
Receptions	65–70	80
Yards	850–900	1,050
Touchdowns	6–7	9

Think rookie-year Drake London: a weekly WR3/FLEX play with spike-week upside. Once Bryce Young and the O-line hit their stride, McMillan could leap into WR2 territory — especially as most rookie WRs improve down the stretch.

5. Rookie-Draft Verdict

Format	Pick Range
1QB (PPR)	1.03–1.06
SuperFlex (PPR)	1.04–1.07

Only Ashton Jeanty, Travis Hunter, and the Cam Ward should go ahead of him. McMillan offers the clearest path to a future WR1 role on a young, ascending offense.

Upside comp: Taller DeAndre Hopkins (elite catch radius + red-zone prowess)

Floor comp: Early-career Michael Pittman Jr. (high-volume, chain-moving WR2)

6. Bottom Line

Carolina didn’t spend a top-10 pick for McMillan to be a decoy.

With Legette looking like a decent #2, Jalen Coker showing to be a great depth receiver and Theilen aging out, McMillan has a legit shot to command 25% of Bryce Young’s targets right away — plus dominate red-zone work that stalled in 2024.

Draft him with confidence in the mid-first. He’s a rock-solid foundation piece with WR1 upside by Year 2.