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patrickwjacques

Overreaction Theater: NFL Week 2

Updated: Sep 18


As with last week’s article, we’re looking at duds and what reaction we should have focusing mainly on players who were drafted in the top 75 or so of redraft leagues. Last week we had three levels, but this week I’m adding a fourth as we have 2 weeks of data now.


1. Relax - he’s fine, better days ahead

2. Pause - monitor closely, something might be off

3. Panic - something is definitely wrong, consider benching or trading

4. Full Blown Panic - fantasy value on life support, potentially droppable (depending on league). Get whatever value you can.


With that, let’s talk about the duds.


Zamir White – Pause


I didn’t discuss Zamir White last week, but it’s time to talk about the dead-zone RB. I know his first two weeks have been pretty horrific (4.1 and 5.3 points in half ppr), but the Raiders have played two solid run defenses (Baltimore in particular) and have played from behind in both games. There’s something to this Las Vegas team, and their upcoming schedule has Carolina and Denver over the next three weeks, two teams that are very beatable on the ground. Don’t give up quite yet, as White still out-snapped Mattison 40 to 14 and more than doubled Mattison’s carry total (and even got a little involved in the passing game). If he bombs against Carolina next week…then we can start to panic.


Diontae Johnson – Full Blown Panic


Yep, I’m breaking glass and smashing the red alert on Johnson and all Panthers. Andy Holloway of the Fantasy Footballers described this franchise with the perfect word on a recent podcast—“Broken.” This team is broken. They have nothing going for them. They have no identity on offense. Bryce Young looks completely lost, totaling just 245 yards through his first two starts while taking 6 sacks and throwing 3 picks. Absolutely brutal. Worse yet, the Panthers don’t have a great schedule coming up—at Las Vegas, then versus Cincy (31st in points allowed to WRs) and at Chicago (29th in points allowed to WRs). If anyone in your league still puts value in the name DiontaeJohnson, get whatever you can. Otherwise it is time to move on for anyone with a pulse on the waiver wire. As a reminder (as I said last week) I am telling you to get ahead on this one—If you are holding Brooks on your IR be ready to try and trade him the week before he comes back when his value is highest. I would not want any assets tied to this team.


Sam LaPorta – Pause


The Tight End landscape has been rough this season with our top two tight ends off the board (LaPorta and Kelce) being complete no-shows for fantasy. I’m not panicking on LaPorta (yet). He’s still been on the field for a huge chunk, trailing only Amon Ra and Jameson Williams in snaps while running 48 of a possible 57 routes—that is stellar for a TE. The bad news is that only translated into 2 targets. The arrival of Williams has potentially put a real damper on LaPorta’s TE1 repeat campaign. The good news is that Detroit hasn’t looked great on offense without involving LaPorta and there’s no way he’s continuing at his current pace (51 catches for 493 yards and 0 TDs). Better days are ahead, but LaPorta very well may finish as a backend TE1 with something like 800/4 now that Williams is getting more run in the offense, placing him firmly on the “bust” list considering his top 40 ADP unless there are some drastic changes.

 

Travis Kelce – Pause


The perennial TE1 has looked like an afterthought in the Chiefs’ offense. With the emergence of Rice and the addition of Xavier Worthy, Kelce hasn’t been needed as the focal point of the offense. He led KC in routes run (29) and snaps against Cincinnati, but that translated into just 3 targets and a carry. Granted, he came within a yard of a TD, which would make you feel a lot better about his final line, but the appeal of drafting Kelce is that he is targeted 7-8x a game and gives you volume plus TDs. However, his current pace is just 34 catches for 332 yards—Kelce will do better. There is no way he finishes with under 800 yards, meaning over his final 15 games he should average at least 50 yards receiving a game and we should expect him to average at least one TD every other game unless he really is over the hill. I don’t personally think that’s the case. If someone is panic selling, I’d go get him, especially with the news of Pacheco’s injury (fractured fibula).


D’andre Swift - Full Blown Panic


I didn’t discuss Swift last week, but I should have. This Bears passing offense has been bad with Caleb Williams at the helm, and the facet of the game coaches usually use to take the pressure off of rookie signal callers—the running game—has been even worse. Swift is mostly to blame for that, as he’s totaled just 48 yards on 24 attempts. I expect Khalil Herbert to continue getting more work and also expect him to be more effective. If Swift can’t turn it around against an Indy defense that just got torched by Josh Jacobs and the Packers, he is a 100% drop. If you can find someone interested in a trade this week, I’d be making that deal.


Tank Dell – Pause


Chicago has a good defense and the number one concern with Dell was not his talent, but rather his usage. Dell ran 43 routes, just behind Collins (52) and Diggs (52) at the WR position. It translated into only 4 targets (and 3 carries) but the takeaway is that Dell is on the field quite a bit. Houston is running a lot of 11 personnel (3 wide receiver sets). I fully expect Diggs to fade as the year goes on and Dell’s breakout is not far off. Don’t give up just yet.


Garrett Wilson – Relax


I fully expected Rodgers to start slow after missing a full year of football and that has been the case. Wilson continues to be the snap, routes run, and target leader on this team. The early part of this year might be a bit rough on the Jets as they play multiple teams who are bottom third in points allowed to WRs (NE, Pitt, Buffalo) but the schedule really opens up around week 9 when the Jets get a really nice stretch against Houston, Arizona, Indy, Seattle, Miami, and Jacksonville. If someone is freaking out about Wilson, take the discount. He might not blossom into the top 5 asset we wanted but I think he’ll settle in as a nice high-end WR2, especially in PPR leagues.


Terry McLaurin – Panic


There isn’t much to say except Washington has a running/scrambling QB who is not going to pass the ball much. That means the wideouts don’t have a ton of upside. Them’s the breaks. McLaurin has just 39 yards over the first 2 games and while I expect that to improve (current pace is just 332 yards on the season), there’s a real risk of McLaurin finishing with only 750-800 yards on the year. At the WR position, unless you’re scoring 10+ TDs, that’s not helping (and he won’t score that many TDs. He never has). The only hope is that Washington’s awful defense helps put their offense in negative game scripts, forcing more passing, but the rest of season outlook for Scary Terry is bleak.


Brandon Aiyuk – Pause


This is the risk of skipping the off season. Aiyuk hasn’t looked in sync with Purdy or the 49ers offense, who have turned to Deebo Samuel far more often over the first two weeks. However, Aiyuk still led the way in snaps and routes run. I think this is a matter of “it’ll happen, just give it time,” and we shouldn’t panic yet. Everyone expected regression after Aiyuk’s hyper-efficient 2023 season but I fully expect a rebound in the coming weeks. Minnesota’s defense is for real, and over the next 3 weeks SF has LAR and AZ on the schedule which should provide some softer matchups.


Michael Pittman – Panic


I’m going to just say it—Anthony Richardson looked bad against Green Bay. He’s essentially a rookie so we expected some growing pains, but aside from that highlight play to Alec Pierce week 1, his passing has looked rough. Pittman has been a huge victim of that, and this week he didn’t even lead the team in targets, snaps, or routes run—that was Alec Pierce, who had another great game. Richardson just isn’t accurately targeting the middle of the field. He’s getting pressured and making poor decisions (3 interceptions last game). Worse, the Colts’ next two games are against Chicago and Pitt, 2 teams with stout fronts, and Josh downs should return soon to complicate the target share even more. I fully expect Pittman’s woes to continue and I won’t be shocked to see him on waiver wires in a week or two.


Amari Cooper – Panic


Is Jeudy the WR1? Cooper has always run a bit hot/cold when it comes to fantasy scoring. His talent isn’t my concern, it’s his QB. I gave Watson and the Browns a pass last week against what I thought was a good defense (New Orleans proved me wrong on that, I guess), but the Jags are a team we should be targeting for fantasy, not fearing. Cooper’s 25 total yards on the season are terrifying as a redraft owner and he needs to be benched until something changes in Cleveland. I’m not dropping and giving up on him yet, but the Browns face the Giants next week. If Amari (and Watson) can’t get something going it’ll be time to really hit the emergency button.


Dalton Kincaid – Panic


I think Kincaid is a talented tight end and pass catcher. But this Bills team? They’re not interested in stretching the field or using Kincaid as a Kelce-type piece in their offense. What we saw against Miami is exactly what Buffalo wants to do—play stoutdefense, run the ball hard, and be efficient in the passing game. Allen has now thrown the ball just 42 times in his first two games. There is basically no fantasy pass catcher on the planet that can make a living on 22 passes a game. Kincaid will need 7-8 targets a game to live up to top 5 TE status, but the likelihood of him getting a 25+% target share is just not realistic. As long as the Bills are in positive game scripts, their current approach seems like the game plan they want to roll out. Unless someone can force the Bills to play catch up (maybe Houston, week 5?) I don’t foresee Kincaid getting enough volume to be a difference maker. On the upside, most TEs in the league have looked terrible so…welcome to the club?

 


Who are you tilting on after Week 2?


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