Can you feel it? That overwhelming sense of dread that washes over #fantasyfootball managers as week 1 ends and their first-round draft pick lays an egg? Maybe your top sleeper barely saw the field this week or maybe you had a favorite mid-round receiver you took everywhere who is suddenly an afterthought in a bad offense. I want you to know—I’m right there with you. In this article, I’m going to discuss the biggest “duds” I could find that everyone is freaking out over and give you some unbiased advice on how I feel about them. Either relax, (take a deep breath, they’re fine), pause (something could be off, monitor closely), or panic (something is DEFINITELY wrong).
Before we get into the players, it’s important to remember a few general things about this new season:
1. It’s only week one. Fantasy managers place way too much emphasis on the opening week of the year. We’re all excited and want our wildest fantasy predictions to come true and when they don’t instantly happen the natural reaction is to throw in the towel. If Mark Andrews had 2 catches for 14 yards during week 7 but had good games for the first month and a half of the season, you wouldn’t even think for a second about giving up on him. But because he did it during prime time, everyone is panicking.
2. Offenses are still figuring things out. No team in the #NFL gives starters significant playing time during the preseason anymore. The season is too long, and players’ health is too important to subject them to multiple extra games. Defenses will always have the edge early on because their role in the on-field battle is reactionary while the offense’s is built around careful planning and execution. The players are going to need time to mesh, coaches are going to need time to figure out what works and what doesn’t, and most of the struggles will get better. Week one is basically the preseason for a lot of these teams, especially the young QBs and coaches who are learning and executing a new system with a new team.
3. There is so much we don’t know. Why did player B get more carries than player A? Why didn’t team X use their highly drafted wide receiver and instead throw to the slow veteran? Why did team Z continue to run the ball even when they were down by 10? We don’t know the reason and we’re not going to. There are things that happen in the week(s) leading up to a game that are totally unknown to us. Maybe a coach was trying to expose a mismatch? Maybe he was trying something different out? Maybe there was no reason, it was just a coincidence and it’ll change next week? We can only read the tea leaves so well. This is why I tell guys, as a general rule, do not make any conclusions about players for at least 3 weeks. That is the earliest you can really see trends develop and start to draw conclusions.
Mark Andrews - Relax
Looking over Andrews’ career against KC it just isn’t that surprising he had a bad game (his best game against the Chiefs ever was 5 catches for 57 yards). In his last 4 regular season games against KC he has just 15 catches for 108 yards. Andrews was bracketed with double coverage for most of the game and is coming off an injury in the off season. KC made it a point to take him away. Take a deep breath if you own him, consider buying at a discount if you don’t.
Jaylen Warren - Pause
Warren has a lingering injury issue to fall back on as an excuse, but Arthur Smith has a serious man crush on Cordarelle Patterson who totaled 4 carries on 9 snaps in this game (1 route run, 0 targets). If this backfield is a 3-headed monster it’s bad news for Warren. The only hope is that Pittsburgh was being conservative with his injury and most weeks he’ll get more work, but this is a bad start to the year.
Javonte Williams - Panic
Williams out-snapped McLaughlin 36-24 and ran more routes (21-15), but McLaughlin had more targets and carries (though McLaughlin did have a fumble). If Williams was splitting time with McLaughlin on a good team, I wouldn’t be too worried. But Denver looked…bad. Bo Nix definitely looked like a rookieQB and if this offense struggles, there will not be a lot of fantasy value in this backfield—certainly not enough to split. If you were looking for Williams to be “the guy” and volume his way to RB2 territory—that dream might be dead.
DK Metcalf - Pause
Metcalf led the team in targets and routes run, but it was Tyler Lockett who led the team in production. It’s not time to panic (yet). Metcalf has proven to be a solid WR in the NFL and most weeks Seattle won’t be controlling the game as they did at home against a poor Denver offense. But with JSN and Lockett both in the mix it’s fair to wonder how Metcalf will be able to sustain WR2 numbers if they make good on the coaching staff’s promise to focus on establishing the run.
Marvin Harrison - Relax
Harrison is a rookie. This is an offense that is going to take some time to figure things out. He led the team in snaps and routes run. Take a deep breath. AZ did not draft him #4 overall to force feed Greg Dortch. He might not live up to the WR11 ADP that the fantasy community bestowed upon him, but there are better days ahead.
Trey McBride - Relax
He was third on the team in routes run and more than doubled the snaps of any other TE on the team. Also—he was targeted nine times by Murray. 9 targets is a huge workload for a TE.If you’re worried, have a beer and go for a walk. He’s fine.
Raheem Mostert - Pause
Mostert looked like a value all offseason but suddenly I don’t feel so sure about that. He was second on the team in RB snaps and routes run behind Achane, but totaled just 6 carries and 3 targets. Achane looks like a focal point. If another back like Wright gets involved—things could get ugly. It’s not time to panic, but keep a close eye on the Miami backfield usage the next couple weeks. Regardless—Mostert is a good handcuff with Achane’s injury so unless you’re in a shallower league, I would not drop him.
Chris Olave - Pause
The Saints got up 17-0 in the first quarter and this game was clearly over. Shaheed got the big play early and the Saints never looked back. I’m not smashing the panic button (yet). Olave led the team in snaps and routes run, and I would’ve liked to see the team force some targets to him, but this is a throwaway game. We didn’t learn a ton except that Carolina is absolutely awfuland we should target any Defense playing against them. Olave is very talented. Wait and see how the targets are divided up next week.
Amari Cooper - Pause
If this were any other defense but Dallas it might be “panic,” but the Cowboys have a really good secondary. My biggest concern is Watson, who looks like one of the worst QBs in the league. The Browns really screwed themselves with this contract and they’re stuck with him for now, but if he can’t improve his play he’ll have to be benched at some point. I’m sticking with Cooper, who led his team in snaps, routes, and targets, but it’s going to be hard to trust him and any Browns offensive player unless Watson plays better. Their matchup at Jacksonville next week should really help us get a gauge on how bad the situation is.
Pittman - Pause
Pittman led Colts wide receivers in snaps, routes, and targets, but Alec Pierce came away with the big day. Sometimes that just happens. I’m not going to freak out yet about Pittman, who should still be a good volume play, but there is a possibility that Pittman’s play in the middle of the field doesn’t mesh with Richard’s big arm and gunslinger style. I think there’s a pretty clear case to be made that his upside could be severely capped, too.
McLaurin (and all WRs with Rookie QBs) - Pause
Rookie QBs are going to struggle and with players taking so few snaps in the preseason, week 1 is always a bit rough for offenses. The good rookie QBs will settle in and improve. In CJ Stroud’s first start he was 28-44 for 242 yards and no TDs. The Texans lost 25 to 9. Players like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are going to need some time to settle in at the NFL level. McLaurin was the team leader in routes run and targets. There will be better weeks ahead, but it is a stark reminder as to why fantasy pundits downgrade basically any wide receiver with a rookie signal caller.
Diontae Johnson - Full Panic
Not only did Diontae Johnson not lead his team in targets or routes run, he is clearly attached to one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Bryce Young looked like a QB who will not be starting next season and while I think Canales is a good coach, he clearly put a terrible product on the field this week. It’s tough to know where to place the blame, and perhaps negative game scripts will help Johnson’s value rebound if Young can figure things out, but aside from deeper PPR leagues I don’t see much value here and I’d be ready to move on. Side note—for anyone rostering Brooks, consider holding him for a month and then trading him away when the hype builds around his return if this offense continues to look this bad. Even if he was a full 75+% workhorse, the fantasy upside is absolutely minimal.
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