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Building the perfect wide receiver season

4000 Yards Passing: The Key to a WR1 Finish


Michael Pittman Jr is a young star in the making
The key to a wide reciever one finish in fantasy football

Wide Receivers can’t score fantasy points without quarterbacks. I know this is obvious, but we really do sometimes forget that even great talent can struggle to overcome a bad passing

situation. But even when the passing situation isn’t bad, there also has to be enough volume for a wide receiver to finish as an elite piece.


Over the past 7 seasons (2017-2023), just 13% of WR1s (11 of 84) in ½ PPR formats have

come from teams with under 4000 yards, an average of just 1.5 per season. And since 2018, no receiver has finished in the top 5 without a 4000 yard passing team, with DJ Moore coming the closest last year finishing as the WR6.



The players who finished as WR1s with teams passing for under 4000 yards are white.

Keep in mind, that 4000 yards includes all passers, not just the team’s top QB. For example, in 2023 Davante Adams finished as the WR11 and did it with a combination of Aiden O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brian Hoyer. The trio only combined for 3654 yards, yet Adams cracked the top 12 at his position.


Year

Player(s)

Yards

TDs

Attempts/Targets

Comp/Receptions

2017

Deshaun Watson, Tom Savage, TJ Yates

3634

28

524

298


DeAndre Hopkins

1378

13

174

96








Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, David Fales

3792

24

599

373


Jarvis Landry

987

9

161

112








Andy Dalton

3320

25

496

297


AJ Green

1078

8

143

75








Carson Palmer, Blaine Gabbert, Drew Stanton

3958

21

598

339


Larry Fitzgerald

1156

6

161

109







2018












2019

Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel

3573

20

580

371


Allen Robinson

1147

7

154

98













2020

Ryan Tannehill

3819

33

481

315


AJ Brown

1075

11

106

70








Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles

3907

26

614

402


Allen Robinson

1250

6

151

102







2021

Russ Wilson, Geno Smith

3815

30

495

324


DK Metcalf

967

12

129

75







2022

Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson

3710

19

540

335


Amari Cooper

1160

9

132

78







2023

Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent

3421

19

513

321


DJ Moore

1364

8

136

96








Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer

3654

19

554

346


Davante Adams

1144

8

175

103


Their reason for the outliers like Adams is obvious: high volume.


The WRs on teams with under 4000 yards who still finished as WR1s garnered a whopping 31% of their team’s yardage, 37% of their team’s TDs, and 27% of their team’s targets. The WRs who did it last season were DJ Moore and Davante Adams. Moore totaled nearly 40% of his team’s yardage, 42% of his team’s TDs, and 26.5% of his team’s targets. Adams meanwhile had 31% of his team’s yardage, 42% of his team’s TDs, and an insane 31.5% of his team’s targets.


So, what to do with this information?


Looking at the top 20 WRs, here are my biggest “red flags” for WRs who I think could be very capped in their volume situation:


WR3: Justin Jefferson: Despite an extremely poor QB situation with Sam Darnold as the

presumed long-term starter, Jefferson is still going in the top 5 WRs in all major formats.

Darnold’s over/under for season-long passing yards hovers around 3200-3400 on most sites. I do think Jefferson will be a WR1 this season thanks to his talent and volume, but hitting as the WR3 or 4 seems like a long shot and I suspect he’ll finish closer to WR8-9. Give me Amon Ra, Chase, or AJ Brown easily.


WR10: Davante Adams: Gardner Minshew has been named the starter, but I’d be shocked if

we don’t see some AOC at some point this year. Regardless, the duo is not passing for 4,000

yards, and with the addition of Brock Bowers (and his aging) I’ll be shocked if Adams matches his obscene 31.5% target share this year, which he would absolutely need to crack the top 12. I fully expect him to be a volume WR2 finishing in the WR16-18 range, but I don’t think he’s worth taking a shot on in that mid-second range round for drafts. I’d be much happier targeting Drake London, Olave, or a RB in that range.


WR18: Michael Pittman: Richardson is a complete unknown, and as much as I believe in the

rushing upside of the QB and Shane Steichen, I don’t believe in the second year player passing for close to 4000 yards in his first real season. His over/under for season-long passing yardage is hovering around 3200. Michael Pittman would have to demand an insane target share and he’s competing with Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Jonathan Taylor for targets. He’s a huge “fade” for me going ahead of names like Waddle and Metcalf.


Bottom Line: If there’s a WR in the top 20 you’re looking at and you don’t think their team is

going to come anywhere close to that 4000 yard total, it might be wise to fade them in favor of a receiver who should get a bit more volume.

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