4000 Yards Passing: The Key to a WR1 Finish
Wide Receivers can’t score fantasy points without quarterbacks. I know this is obvious, but we really do sometimes forget that even great talent can struggle to overcome a bad passing
situation. But even when the passing situation isn’t bad, there also has to be enough volume for a wide receiver to finish as an elite piece.
Over the past 7 seasons (2017-2023), just 13% of WR1s (11 of 84) in ½ PPR formats have
come from teams with under 4000 yards, an average of just 1.5 per season. And since 2018, no receiver has finished in the top 5 without a 4000 yard passing team, with DJ Moore coming the closest last year finishing as the WR6.
The players who finished as WR1s with teams passing for under 4000 yards are white.
Keep in mind, that 4000 yards includes all passers, not just the team’s top QB. For example, in 2023 Davante Adams finished as the WR11 and did it with a combination of Aiden O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brian Hoyer. The trio only combined for 3654 yards, yet Adams cracked the top 12 at his position.
Year | Player(s) | Yards | TDs | Attempts/Targets | Comp/Receptions |
2017 | Deshaun Watson, Tom Savage, TJ Yates | 3634 | 28 | 524 | 298 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 1378 | 13 | 174 | 96 | |
Jay Cutler, Matt Moore, David Fales | 3792 | 24 | 599 | 373 | |
Jarvis Landry | 987 | 9 | 161 | 112 | |
Andy Dalton | 3320 | 25 | 496 | 297 | |
AJ Green | 1078 | 8 | 143 | 75 | |
Carson Palmer, Blaine Gabbert, Drew Stanton | 3958 | 21 | 598 | 339 | |
Larry Fitzgerald | 1156 | 6 | 161 | 109 | |
2018 | |||||
2019 | Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel | 3573 | 20 | 580 | 371 |
Allen Robinson | 1147 | 7 | 154 | 98 | |
2020 | Ryan Tannehill | 3819 | 33 | 481 | 315 |
AJ Brown | 1075 | 11 | 106 | 70 | |
Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles | 3907 | 26 | 614 | 402 | |
Allen Robinson | 1250 | 6 | 151 | 102 | |
2021 | Russ Wilson, Geno Smith | 3815 | 30 | 495 | 324 |
DK Metcalf | 967 | 12 | 129 | 75 | |
2022 | Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson | 3710 | 19 | 540 | 335 |
Amari Cooper | 1160 | 9 | 132 | 78 | |
2023 | Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent | 3421 | 19 | 513 | 321 |
DJ Moore | 1364 | 8 | 136 | 96 | |
Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer | 3654 | 19 | 554 | 346 | |
Davante Adams | 1144 | 8 | 175 | 103 |
Their reason for the outliers like Adams is obvious: high volume.
The WRs on teams with under 4000 yards who still finished as WR1s garnered a whopping 31% of their team’s yardage, 37% of their team’s TDs, and 27% of their team’s targets. The WRs who did it last season were DJ Moore and Davante Adams. Moore totaled nearly 40% of his team’s yardage, 42% of his team’s TDs, and 26.5% of his team’s targets. Adams meanwhile had 31% of his team’s yardage, 42% of his team’s TDs, and an insane 31.5% of his team’s targets.
So, what to do with this information?
Looking at the top 20 WRs, here are my biggest “red flags” for WRs who I think could be very capped in their volume situation:
WR3: Justin Jefferson: Despite an extremely poor QB situation with Sam Darnold as the
presumed long-term starter, Jefferson is still going in the top 5 WRs in all major formats.
Darnold’s over/under for season-long passing yards hovers around 3200-3400 on most sites. I do think Jefferson will be a WR1 this season thanks to his talent and volume, but hitting as the WR3 or 4 seems like a long shot and I suspect he’ll finish closer to WR8-9. Give me Amon Ra, Chase, or AJ Brown easily.
WR10: Davante Adams: Gardner Minshew has been named the starter, but I’d be shocked if
we don’t see some AOC at some point this year. Regardless, the duo is not passing for 4,000
yards, and with the addition of Brock Bowers (and his aging) I’ll be shocked if Adams matches his obscene 31.5% target share this year, which he would absolutely need to crack the top 12. I fully expect him to be a volume WR2 finishing in the WR16-18 range, but I don’t think he’s worth taking a shot on in that mid-second range round for drafts. I’d be much happier targeting Drake London, Olave, or a RB in that range.
WR18: Michael Pittman: Richardson is a complete unknown, and as much as I believe in the
rushing upside of the QB and Shane Steichen, I don’t believe in the second year player passing for close to 4000 yards in his first real season. His over/under for season-long passing yardage is hovering around 3200. Michael Pittman would have to demand an insane target share and he’s competing with Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Jonathan Taylor for targets. He’s a huge “fade” for me going ahead of names like Waddle and Metcalf.
Bottom Line: If there’s a WR in the top 20 you’re looking at and you don’t think their team is
going to come anywhere close to that 4000 yard total, it might be wise to fade them in favor of a receiver who should get a bit more volume.
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