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Overreaction Theater: NFL Week 4



Panic or Patience
How much longer do you hold out hope for some of these NFL players

As with weeks 1 through 3, we’re looking at underperforming fantasy players and what reaction we should have to their performances, focusing mainly on players who were drafted in the top 75 or so of redraft leagues. We have a total of 5 levels:


Relax - he’s fine, better days ahead

Pause - monitor closely, something might be off but could be fine

Panic - something is definitely wrong, consider benching or trading

Full Blown Panic – fantasy value on life support, potentially droppable (depending on league). Get the value you can.

Abandon ship – It’s over. Drop or trade this player and let someone else deal with the

headache.


With that, let’s talk about the duds.


Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL): Pause

Arthur Smith was the scapegoat in Bijan’s rookie year, but 4 games into his sophomore season I feel like I’m having Post Traumatic Arthur Smith Disorder and we’re back in 2023. Cordarelle Patterson is thankfully gone, but Tyler Allgeier is very much still a thing. And honestly? He should be. Through 4 weeks, Allgeier has (per PFF) a higher first down run rate, a higher yards per carry, more yards after contact per carry, a higher avoided tackle rate, and more carries of 10+ yards…all while having roughly half the carries (27 versus Bijan’s 55). Bijan missed out on a big receiving TD on a screen pass (called back on a phantom holding penalty) but, in my opinion, the “name brand” of Bijan and what you are getting (and will continue to get) are two very different things. Even with the Falcons’ soft schedule, I’d be willing to entertain some offers if people are willing to chase the upside. Keep a close eye on snap counts this week and next against two soft run defenses (TB and CAR).


Breece Hall (RB, NYJ): Pause

Hall and Bijan were the consensus RB2 and 3 backs off the board (behind McCaffrey) because drafters believed these two would be true “bell cows” in the backfield, garnering 80+% of RB snaps and touches. Unfortunately, both backs are now staring down the barrel of the dreaded RBBC. Braelon Allen has shown a lot of talent and his snap share has grown each week. This week he was on the field for 27 of a possible 70 RB snaps, including a goal line carry. This is not the backfield Breece Hall drafters wanted, especially considering the Jets’ offense is struggling so heavily. I wouldn’t advise selling Hall at the moment following such a terrible performance, but keep your ear to the ground for overpay offers. He’s still a solid RB1 but Allen could really cap his ceiling if his roll continues to grow.


Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL): Full Blown Panic


Pitts has seen his playing time drop in each of the last four weeks (just 65% of pass plays this past week). Charlie Woerner of all people is now cutting into his snaps. The TE landscape is barren, but I’d be trying to move Pitts on the name brand. It’s probably too late to get Jake Ferguson but maybe a Freiermuth would be on the table? Or try to get Conklin and another player in a package deal maybe. It just doesn’t seem like Pitts is going to be what we hoped this season, as his entire fantasy production in weeks 1 and 3 came on two broken plays. We have to remind ourselves that talent demands targets, and right now Pitts isn’t demanding that he be featured in the offense. We can only blame coaching staffs, schemes, and bad luck for so long. He can’t be trusted in your lineup, but it might be too painful to drop him just yet.


Zamir White (RB, LV): Abandon Ship

I’m not going to close the door on White for the rest of the season--maybe things turn around-- but it’s time to move on. Let someone else waste a bench spot on him (or worse—start him and get 3 points). Mattison is the more efficient back on the team and getting most of the passing down work. You obviously can’t trade him, but if there’s anything worthwhile on the waiver wire (like Legette) it’s time to make a swap. In deeper leagues, hold out hope that he can rediscover his late 2023 self and the Raiders can get into positive game scripts where he’ll get volume to put up points…but don’t hold your breath.


Mark Andrews (TE, BAL): Full Blown Panic

I’m writing this before the Lions MNF game, so you could potentially put LaPorta here if he has yet another terrible game, but for now the most shocking TE bust of the 2024 season is Mark Andrews. Not only have the Ravens had a frustrating passing offense (for fantasy purposes), but Andrews is now not even the most valuable TE in that passing offense (Likely ran more routes than Andrews against the Bills). The only potential upside to this is that the Ravens somehow dominated the Bills and were in cruise control for the entire second half. Had the game been more competitive, maybe Andrews is more involved, but you can’t trot out a player posting back-to-back goose eggs. He is, in my opinion, the toughest player to own in fantasy right now—can’t drop him, can’t trade him, can’t start him. I would ride it out for one more week in deeper leagues, but in 8 to 10 team redraft leagues I’m done and moving on. Put someone, anyone else with a pulse in your lineup.


D’andre Swift (RB, CHI): Abandon Ship (through a trade when you can…)

Last week I wrote it was time to give up on Swift and I’m doubling down on that. If you still own him, dangle him in trades but consider that there is a soft upcoming schedule for the Bears: vs. CAR, vs. JAX. There’s a chance Swift can muster a couple decent weeks. I am trading him 100% if he can give me back-to-back weeks. I don’t believe in him as a player nor do I believe in him as an asset you want to own in the second half of the season when the rushing defenses get much tougher for Chicago, particularly in the fantasy playoffs: @MIN, vs. DET, vs SEA. No thanks.


Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ): Panic

The next 3 weeks aren’t going to be fun for the Jets and Wilson owners. They travel to

Minnesota next week, then play Buffalo at home and Pitt on the road. The offense hasn’t been in a rhythm at any point except for their TNF game against New England. There isn’t a more obvious example of that than Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, who continue to look like they’re playing different sports and speaking different languages. It’s totally possible they don’t find the Rodgers/D. Adams groove that we saw in Green Bay, and for the record I don’t expect them to find it for at least a couple weeks, but with NE, HOU, ARI, and IND on the schedule after that…maybe there’s a chance. I’m not freaking out and dropping Wilson, but I am taking deep breaths and reaching for the brown paper bag.


Brandon Aiyuk: Full Blown Panic

Deebo Samuel is back. Kittle is back. At some point, McCaffrey will be back. Jauan Jennings is still getting snaps (and outplayed Aiyuk…again). I truly can’t understand why SF was so desperate to pay Aiyuk tens of millions of dollars to run 27 routes and total 5 targets, but I guess they got their man. Through 4 weeks (not counting the stats from MNF) Aiyuk is the WR60 in half ppr formats, 3 spots behind Rashod Bateman. Yep, that Rashod Bateman. He has fewer points that Ray Ray McCloud. In a shallower league if there’s a big name you believe in, I would consider making a move. In any league size if someone is trying to “buy low” and offering WR3 or 2 value…I would consider that, too. Common sense says he’ll break out at some point, but we’re a month in. How much longer can you wait?


Amari Cooper: Panic (still)

Cooper led the team in routes run, but was second in targets to Jerry Jeudy and put up another miserable dud. He’s the WR38 but accumulated 69% of his total season-long fantasy points in week 3. If he only “hits” once every 4 weeks, you could be in for a really bumpy ride this year.

Considering the Browns strength of schedule for WRs is very tough after their week 10 bye

(@NO, vs. PIT, @DEN, @PIT), and their playoff schedule is tough as well (vs KC, @CIN, @MINN), I would be looking to deal him after his next big game which should be one of these next two weeks when the Browns play Washington and Philadelphia.


BONUS: ABANDON SHIP LIST


Now that we’re four weeks in, here are some “Abandon Ship” players we haven’t discussed (as

they were drafted outside the top 75) but you should no longer be rostering in normal 10-12

team leagues unless you have very deep benches and a barren waiver wire:

- Christian Watson: Candidate for IR and this is clearly the J Reed/Wicks show.

- Keon Coleman: The #3 target in a low passing volume offense

- Gus Edwards: Continuing to lose snaps and be outplayed by Dobbins

- Trey Benson: It’s Conner’s job until he’s hurt. I would look for upside elsewhere.

- Blake Corum: Kyren is that dude. Corum is an afterthought.

- Romeo Doubs: He’s always been “just a guy.” No upside. No explosion.

- Curtis Samuel: Struggles to stay healthy and is the #5 or 6 target on the team.

- Dalton Schultz: Too many WRs to feed for him to have a meaningful role.

- Josh Palmer: McConkey and Quentin Johnston have lapped him.

- Jaleel McLaughlin: The Broncos are a bad offense with a bad run game and he’s the backup

- Adonai Mitchell: Downs, Pierce and Pittman are all ahead. Move on.

- Gabe Davis: The only piece I want in the Jags passing offense is Brian Thomas Jr.

- Luke Musgrave: Tucker Kraft is the starter.

- Ray Davis: Losing snaps to Ty Johnson and was already buried behind Cook.

- Adam Thielen: He’s now hurt and is behind Diontae and Legette.

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