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Buy Low/Sell High: Tight Ends

Updated: Apr 23

Buy

Cole Kmet, Bears:  Very quietly, Cole Kmet has been a force at the tight end position despite Justin Fields, Tyler Bagent, and Andy Dalton at the wheel.   Add in; Caleb Williams (?), Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, and Gerald Everett.  Guess who is no longer covered?   Yes, you’re right, it's Cole Kmet, who has already amassed 13 touchdowns in the last two seasons and boasting back-to-back Te7 seasons.   Caleb Williams is undoubtedly coming into the NFL with a gigantic chip on his shoulder and my bet is he’s looking to break the Bears single-season passing records IN HIS FIRST YEAR.  Here’s what Caleb has to beat;


Completions: 370

Yards:  3830 

Touchdowns: 29

Interceptions: 10


Doing some rough extrapolation, Caleb’s pace last year at USC over 16 games would give him;

Completions: 355

Yards: 4844

Touchdowns 40

Interceptions: 7


Justin Fields only threw for 2562 yards last season in 13 games… long story short, there will be plenty of opportunity for Kmet to have his best season ever, even with the number of mouths to feed in that offense. Kmet saw at least five targets 11 times in 2023 and figures to see even more room to operate in 2024.


Sell High. 

David Njoku, Browns; The Chief was the biggest beneficiary of an injured DeShaun Watson in 2023. Before the Watson shoulder injury Njoku was just getting cardio as usual through his first six weeks, drawing five or more targets, once in that span. 


It was easy to see the Njoku breakout was directly correlated to the Joe Flacco resurgence.  Many claimed this was Njoku’s breakout season, but “outlier” is a more likely term to describe his 2023 season.  Prior to ‘23, Njoku’s season career highs were 58 catches, 639 yards, and 4 touchdowns.   Thats it.


In 2022, Njoku had six weeks in the top 10 Tight Ends in fantasy scoring, in the entire season.  Over a 43 game stretch from 2020-2023, Njoku had five or more 

catches SEVEN times.   SEVEN.  In forty-three games.  


Not exactly the type of numbers you’d expect from one of the most hyped players in fantasy football.  Njoku has had numerous coaching staffs and coordinators, yet none have felt the need to target him heavily, or involve him in the offense.  Now is a fantastic time to move “The Chief” before he falls back down to earth. 


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