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2023 Bust Candidate: Davante Adams

Updated: Jul 28, 2023

Before we begin, remember:  Bust is defined as a player that does not return the investment made on the player at the price it costs per their draft position.  Im not hating on the player;  I'm hating on the game.   And Adams’ game could go south quickly.   Coming off a 2022 season with his second lowest catch rate of his career ( 55.6% ) , the forecast for Adams this year at his current ADP stinks of regret as early as June.  

With rumors and speculation abound with Jimmy Garoppolo's ankle, elbow, foot, … heck from his pretty face down, there's not a lot to like about the Raiders’ quarterback situation.   Besides these ailments, Jimmy Handsome has never been Jimmy Reliable.   Only ONCE in his his full 6 year career as a full time NFL starter ( you can’t penalize him for those years behind Tom Brady in New England ), Garopollo has played 16 games.  He’s started in more than six games TWICE.  There was a vocal amount of criticism in his game as far back as the 2021 POSTSEASON, and now he’s expected to lead Las Vegas to a meaningful year this year?  They say  “you cannot predict injury” but lets be serious for a second: It could be Aiden OConnell time by Week 6.

What may lead people astray is the opportunity which on the surface feels TREMENDOUS.  Recently departed Darren Waller , Mack Hollins and Foster Moreau garnered 198 targets last year, and Hunter Renfrow had 50 of his own.   Adams had an eye popping ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY targets so volume was not an issue.  In all reality, Davante may want to trade in some quantity for quality at some point.  

Waller has been replaced by rookie Michael Meyer, who shouldn’t earn a lot of looks his rookie year.   Jakobi Meyers can get walk in, earn 80-100 looks and not cut into Adams’ share one bit.  Is Hunter Renfrow fading or flat out a thing of the past?   

Adams vocally wanted to play with Derek Carr and was not pleased when Carr was not re-signed by Vegas and instead opted to gamble on a deal with New Orleans.   Odds are, Las Vegas finishes last in a very start studded division.   Does Adams cash out early?   With an average adp on Sleeper of 19.5 ( ahead of A.J Brown, Ceedee Lamb and Amon -Ra St Brown! )  I’ll roll the dice on someone besides Davante Adams at that spot in my draft.

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